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The return of the saiga

AFor much of the twentieth century, the saiga antelope was one of the most numerous large mammals on the Eurasian steppe. Herds of tens of thousands moved across the grasslands of what is now Kazakhstan, travelling north in spring and south in autumn. The animal's appearance is unmistakable: a sandy coat, thin legs and, above all, a large, flexible nose that hangs down over its mouth. Biologists believe this nose works as a kind of natural air conditioner. In summer, it filters out the dust raised by running herds; in the bitter Central Asian winter, it warms the frozen air before it reaches the lungs.

BThe collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought a sudden reversal. With state funding for wildlife protection gone and unemployment rising in rural areas, poaching increased sharply. Hunters targeted males in particular, because their amber-coloured horns could be sold for use in traditional medicine abroad. As the number of adult males fell, many females were left without mates, and fewer calves were born each year. By the early 2000s, the saiga population of Kazakhstan had fallen by more than 95 per cent, to roughly 20,000 animals, and the species was officially classified as critically endangered.

CThe recovery that followed is now often presented as a model for conservation elsewhere. In the mid-2000s, the Kazakh government and several international organisations launched the Altyn Dala Conservation Initiative, which aimed to protect not only the saiga but the steppe ecosystem as a whole. New protected areas were created along the animals' migration routes, and ranger patrols were expanded and better equipped. Equally important, according to those involved, was the work done with local communities. Villagers were employed as wildlife monitors, and school programmes encouraged children to see the saiga as part of their national heritage rather than as a source of income.

DProgress was not steady. In May 2015, during the calving season, more than 200,000 saigas died in central Kazakhstan in less than three weeks. Researchers later identified the cause as a type of bacterium that normally lives harmlessly inside the animals. Unusually warm and humid weather appears to have allowed it to multiply and enter the bloodstream. Because saigas gather in enormous groups to give birth, the disease spread with extraordinary speed. Some scientists warned at the time that a changing climate could make such events more frequent, and that the species might never fully recover.

EThese fears proved too pessimistic. Saigas reproduce remarkably quickly for a large mammal: females can breed in their first year of life, and twins are common. With poaching largely under control, numbers rose rapidly, and an aerial survey in 2023 counted almost two million animals in Kazakhstan. In the same year, the International Union for Conservation of Nature moved the saiga from "critically endangered" to "near threatened", a change that conservationists described as exceptional for a large mammal.

FSuccess, however, has created a new problem. As the herds have grown, they have increasingly moved onto farmland, where they eat crops and compete with livestock for grazing. Farmers in western Kazakhstan have reported significant losses, and in 2024 the government approved a reduction in saiga numbers in some regions. The decision has divided opinion. Supporters argue that a population of this size is now secure, and that the saiga's long-term future depends on the goodwill of rural communities. Critics point out that numbers have crashed suddenly in the past, and that nobody can predict how disease or extreme winters will affect the herds. What is clear is that the saiga's story is no longer only about survival; it is about whether people and a large wild animal can share the same land.